The statistical relationship derived from a linear regression of contraceptive prevalence on the total fertility rate indicates that an increase of 15 percentage points in contraceptive prevalence among married women is associated with a decline of about one child in the total fertility rate. The purpose of this report is to examine the situation in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa-Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Zimbabwe-which appear to deviate substantially from this expected pattern. These are countries in which fertility has declined by a greater amount than would be expected on the basis of increases in contraceptive prevalence.
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